The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP)

Grievances related to deteriorating economic conditions and essential service provision have generated most protest activity in Iran in recent days. Petrochemical and telecommunication workers and retirees have held several small-scale demonstrations throughout Iran since January 22, as CTP has previously reported.[i] CTP has also documented electricity cuts and natural gas shortages across the country.[ii] The regime, particularly the Raisi administration, has appeared unable to meaningfully address these issues thus far.

These poor internal conditions will likely stoke anti-regime frustrations and could reignite the protest movement in the months and years ahead. The protest movement has largely culminated at present, as CTP previously argued, but this culmination does not mean that the anti-regime movement has ended, nor does it mean that the regime has meaningfully addressed the root causes of the movement. The protesters likely retain their anger and frustrations toward the regime. The conditions for a strong and vibrant anti-regime movement thus remain.

The pro-Pahlavi Mashhad Neighborhood Youth urged protesters to continue their struggle against the regime on January 25.[iii] The Mashhad group called on protesters to “conduct at least one operation [against the regime] each night,” such as attacking IRGC and Basij facilities and seminaries or producing anti-regime graffiti. The Mashhad group also advised protesters to “redo plans” and “identify your strengths and weaknesses.” CTP has not observed significant support for the Pahlavi family in its coverage of the protests.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-january-25-2023